| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 6.4 C |
| RH | | 11 % |
| Wind | | N 11 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 342 FXHW60 PHFO 261949 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 949 AM HST Sun Jun 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers are expected over favored leeward areas today while moderate trades will continue to deliver relatively limited showers to windward zones through Wednesday. Locally breezy trades will return as early as Monday afternoon with an uptick in trade shower coverage likely during the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Local visible imagery reveals mostly sunny skies over the smaller islands and upstream waters early this morning. Light to moderate trades will continue focusing only very limited showers over windward zones for the next 24 hours. However, the emerging hybrid sea breeze pattern late this morning through this afternoon will allow for renewed convective development over leeward zones, particularly those in Maui County. While a few locally heavy showers will be possible, overall shower intensity in these areas will be markedly lower than yesterday courtesy of slowly diminishing moisture and slightly increased stability. For the Big island, lingering clouds associated with overnight showers, both windward and leeward, are now dissipating in favor of interior cloud development associated with diurnal heating. Similar to yesterday, a healthy coverage of interior showers can be expected, particularly for leeward areas while mostly dry conditions are likely along the lower slopes of the windward coast. Enhanced leeward moisture will once again contribute to shower development along the Kona coast tonight. Late today into tonight building trades will usher westward what remains of the existing batch of low-level moisture. Locally breezy trades are forecast to be in place as early as Monday afternoon with gradual strengthening then anticipated heading into mid-week. While stronger trades will more efficiently drive trade wind showers over windward zones, a much drier mid-level airmass working westward through the area will provide increased stability even as the inversion itself potentially remains somewhat weaker and more elevated. As a result, windward shower coverage is forecast to be on the drier side through at least Wednesday. During the latter half of the week, expanding easterly flow through 700mb will eventually be able to tap into the reservoir of greater moisture presently along/east of about 130W per the CIMSS PWAT product. By Thursday or Thursday night, weakened stability and increased moisture evident in model forecast soundings will contribute to a more typical coverage of trade showers. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites and these conditions are expected to continue through the day and on into the evening hours. There may be brief periods of MVFR conditions at windward terminals such as PHTO in low clouds and SHRA. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Maui County and the Big Island as an area of moisture embedded in low level trade wind flow interacts with island terrain. Expect some improvement in conditions this afternoon. && .MARINE... Trade winds will hold at gentle to moderate speeds through tonight as a front passes between the islands and a surface high well north of Kauai. The high will build far northeast of the state Monday and Tuesday, leading to an increase in trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory will should be needed for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through at least the middle of the week, and likely through next weekend. Two pulses of south swell will produce elevated south shore surf this week. Long period forerunners (17-19 seconds) of the first swell have been building this morning at the Barbers Point PacIOOS buoy, and recent trends at the NOAA buoys south of the islands suggest that the swell may come in larger than expected this afternoon and tonight, possibly leading to surf near the High Surf Advisory level of 10 feet into Monday. The next pulse of south swell is due on Tuesday and Wednesday and could be slightly larger. This swell will gradually decline Thursday and Friday. Surf along exposed north and east facing shores could see a bump in small, short period swell today into Monday, but this swell is running smaller than expected based on recent buoy readings. Surf along north shores will drop Tuesday, while strengthening trade winds will boost rough east shore surf to around seasonal average. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Burke MARINE...Wroe Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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