NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
358
FXHW60 PHFO 040606
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
806 PM HST Mon Jun 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will continue through Tuesday, before easing
Wednesday and giving way to sea and land breezes Thursday and
Friday. A fairly typical trade wind pattern will continue through
Tuesday morning, with trade wind showers then steadily decreasing
through the middle of the week as a more stable airmass gradually
settles overhead. Some lingering instability may allow for a
thunderstorm to pop over interior Big Island Tuesday afternoon
however. Very dry conditions will overspread the entire island
chain Thursday through the weekend, greatly limiting shower
activity across the entire state. Returning and gradually
strengthening trade winds could bring a slight increase in
showers early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high centered 950 miles
northeast of Honolulu, is driving breezy trade winds across the
island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly
cloudy conditions with cloud cover most prevalent over windward
and mauka areas. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered to
showers affecting windward slopes and coasts, with the occasional
shower spilling Leeward at times. Main short term focus revolves
around trade wind trends and rain chances.
The high to the northeast of the islands will remain nearly
stationary through Tuesday, slowly weaken as it shifts eastward
on Wednesday, with the ridge axis then moving over or very near
the western islands Thursday and Friday. Breezy trade winds will
continue through Tuesday, then ease into the moderate range
Wednesday. The winds will ease further and become light and
variable over the smaller islands Thursday and Friday, allowing
for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes to be dominant.
Meanwhile, light trades will likely hold in the unprotected areas
of the Big Island. The surface ridge axis is forecast to shift
northward over the weekend into early next week, which should
bring a return and gradual strengthening of the trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, a very unstable airmass
aloft will remain over the islands tonight, and this may allow for
a few high based thunderstorms to move into the windward waters
over the eastern end of the state. Otherwise, fairly typical
trade wind weather should prevail tonight into Tuesday morning.
The trade wind inversion is then expected to crash down to around
5 kft greatly limiting trade wind showers Tuesday afternoon.
There remains a slight chance that instability aloft could allow a
thunderstorm to pop over the Big Island interior during the
afternoon hours, but as was the case today, dry air aloft may
prove to much for the convection to overcome.
Rather dry trade wind weather will continue Tuesday night through
Wednesday night as the trade wind inversion holds around 5 kft,
with most leeward areas not seeing any rain. Little change in the
trade wind inversion height is expected Thursday through the
weekend, greatly limiting shower activity across the entire state.
A slight increase in windward showers is possible late in the
weekend into early next week as the trades gradually return and
inversion heights begin to slowly rise.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally strong trades will produce low cigs and SHRA in
windward and mauka zones through the period. Nothing more than
isolated MVFR expected. The arrival of elevated instability favors
a chance for isolated TS over interior and upslope sections of
the Big Island Tuesday afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra will go into effect at 10Z for mtn obsc for windward
Big Island and N thru SE sections of the smaller islands.
AIRMET Tango for lee turb remains in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure north of the state will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds into Tuesday, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect for all waters around the Big Island and Maui
County and select areas around Oahu and Kauai. The ridge will
continue to weaken as the SCA will likely be trimmed back to the
typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The ridge further erodes and displaces the
ridge southward over the islands Thursday into Friday, causing the
trades to diminish significantly and possibly become disrupted.
The SCA will be dropped completely by this time. Increasing
moderate trades are expected during the weekend as the ridge lifts
northward.
An active south Pacific will continue the extended run of
southerly swell almost certainly through mid June. The current
south-southwest swell has peaked and remains steady just below
High Surf Advisory Criteria. This swell will gradually decline
Tuesday into Thursday, followed by a reinforcing south- southwest
swell late Thursday and Friday that will produce south shore surf
around seasonal average. Coming into the weekend, a larger swell
will move through the islands likely near or at the High Surf
Advisory (HSA) criteria of 10 feet. Followed by a potentially
larger swell in development looking increasingly likely to push
surf well above the advisory level late next week.
A small northwest swell has continued to build this evening and
will peak late tonight and Tuesday, then linger into Thursday. A
possible small short- period north- northwest swell should follow
later in the week. The fresh to strong trade wind flow is
producing rough choppy elevated seas. Wind waves will diminish
significantly after Wednesday coinciding with the light winds
through the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
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Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
358
FXHW60 PHFO 040606
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
806 PM HST Mon Jun 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will continue through Tuesday, before easing
Wednesday and giving way to sea and land breezes Thursday and
Friday. A fairly typical trade wind pattern will continue through
Tuesday morning, with trade wind showers then steadily decreasing
through the middle of the week as a more stable airmass gradually
settles overhead. Some lingering instability may allow for a
thunderstorm to pop over interior Big Island Tuesday afternoon
however. Very dry conditions will overspread the entire island
chain Thursday through the weekend, greatly limiting shower
activity across the entire state. Returning and gradually
strengthening trade winds could bring a slight increase in
showers early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high centered 950 miles
northeast of Honolulu, is driving breezy trade winds across the
island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly
cloudy conditions with cloud cover most prevalent over windward
and mauka areas. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered to
showers affecting windward slopes and coasts, with the occasional
shower spilling Leeward at times. Main short term focus revolves
around trade wind trends and rain chances.
The high to the northeast of the islands will remain nearly
stationary through Tuesday, slowly weaken as it shifts eastward
on Wednesday, with the ridge axis then moving over or very near
the western islands Thursday and Friday. Breezy trade winds will
continue through Tuesday, then ease into the moderate range
Wednesday. The winds will ease further and become light and
variable over the smaller islands Thursday and Friday, allowing
for daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes to be dominant.
Meanwhile, light trades will likely hold in the unprotected areas
of the Big Island. The surface ridge axis is forecast to shift
northward over the weekend into early next week, which should
bring a return and gradual strengthening of the trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, a very unstable airmass
aloft will remain over the islands tonight, and this may allow for
a few high based thunderstorms to move into the windward waters
over the eastern end of the state. Otherwise, fairly typical
trade wind weather should prevail tonight into Tuesday morning.
The trade wind inversion is then expected to crash down to around
5 kft greatly limiting trade wind showers Tuesday afternoon.
There remains a slight chance that instability aloft could allow a
thunderstorm to pop over the Big Island interior during the
afternoon hours, but as was the case today, dry air aloft may
prove to much for the convection to overcome.
Rather dry trade wind weather will continue Tuesday night through
Wednesday night as the trade wind inversion holds around 5 kft,
with most leeward areas not seeing any rain. Little change in the
trade wind inversion height is expected Thursday through the
weekend, greatly limiting shower activity across the entire state.
A slight increase in windward showers is possible late in the
weekend into early next week as the trades gradually return and
inversion heights begin to slowly rise.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally strong trades will produce low cigs and SHRA in
windward and mauka zones through the period. Nothing more than
isolated MVFR expected. The arrival of elevated instability favors
a chance for isolated TS over interior and upslope sections of
the Big Island Tuesday afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra will go into effect at 10Z for mtn obsc for windward
Big Island and N thru SE sections of the smaller islands.
AIRMET Tango for lee turb remains in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure north of the state will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds into Tuesday, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
remains in effect for all waters around the Big Island and Maui
County and select areas around Oahu and Kauai. The ridge will
continue to weaken as the SCA will likely be trimmed back to the
typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The ridge further erodes and displaces the
ridge southward over the islands Thursday into Friday, causing the
trades to diminish significantly and possibly become disrupted.
The SCA will be dropped completely by this time. Increasing
moderate trades are expected during the weekend as the ridge lifts
northward.
An active south Pacific will continue the extended run of
southerly swell almost certainly through mid June. The current
south-southwest swell has peaked and remains steady just below
High Surf Advisory Criteria. This swell will gradually decline
Tuesday into Thursday, followed by a reinforcing south- southwest
swell late Thursday and Friday that will produce south shore surf
around seasonal average. Coming into the weekend, a larger swell
will move through the islands likely near or at the High Surf
Advisory (HSA) criteria of 10 feet. Followed by a potentially
larger swell in development looking increasingly likely to push
surf well above the advisory level late next week.
A small northwest swell has continued to build this evening and
will peak late tonight and Tuesday, then linger into Thursday. A
possible small short- period north- northwest swell should follow
later in the week. The fresh to strong trade wind flow is
producing rough choppy elevated seas. Wind waves will diminish
significantly after Wednesday coinciding with the light winds
through the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office