NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
366
FXHW60 PHFO 240120
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
320 PM HST Thu May 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will linger over the
islands into the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor typical
windward and mauka areas during this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Locally breezy trades are focusing limited clouds and showers
windward and mauka at press time. This is courtesy of S to SE flow
above 850mb steering the lion's share of moisture northwestward
and parallel to the island chain. This layer of winds will turn
more onshore in time, but will advect drier air into the region as
it does so leading to a continued modest coverage of windward
showers. This will particularly be the case over the eastern end
of the state where dry advection will be most pronounced. The
gradient then weakens during the weekend as upper-level troughing
digs southward Saturday and Sunday before advancing eastward
across the forecast area early next week. The gradient will
diminish during this time as winds veer to ESE leading to an
expansion in sea breeze coverage in the more sheltered locales.
This will be accompanied by the typical increase in afternoon
clouds along with a few showers. Model consensus points toward an
amplifying upper-level trough establishing over the forecast area
during the second half of next week. This will cause further
weakening the local gradient and an expansion of the land and sea
breeze pattern to encompass most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist across the
Hawaiian Islands through tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers
will favor the windward coasts and slopes through the period,
with greater coverage expected during the overnight hours. Brief
MVFR conditions are possible in moderate showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward
areas of Maui and Oahu, and for all of Kauai this afternoon.
Conditions may improve early this evening, then an uptick in
windward showers overnight into tomorrow morning may require
AIRMET Sierra for more mountain obscuration across windward
portions of some of the Hawaiian Islands.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of
the state through Friday, strengthening the trade winds into the
fresh to strong range across the island chain. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is in effect for most waters around Maui and the
Big Island through 6 AM Friday, and for the windier zones in that
area through 6 PM Saturday. A trough of low pressure amplifying
and lingering west of the islands this weekend may cause the
trades to ease a bit and shift to a more east-southeasterly
direction over the western end of the state. Moderate to strong
easterly trades will prevail over the eastern waters.
South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average
through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent
pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south-
southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of
next week. East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average
through Friday, followed by a slight decrease this weekend through
the middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of
the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a
slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...TS
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
366
FXHW60 PHFO 240120
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
320 PM HST Thu May 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will linger over the
islands into the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor typical
windward and mauka areas during this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Locally breezy trades are focusing limited clouds and showers
windward and mauka at press time. This is courtesy of S to SE flow
above 850mb steering the lion's share of moisture northwestward
and parallel to the island chain. This layer of winds will turn
more onshore in time, but will advect drier air into the region as
it does so leading to a continued modest coverage of windward
showers. This will particularly be the case over the eastern end
of the state where dry advection will be most pronounced. The
gradient then weakens during the weekend as upper-level troughing
digs southward Saturday and Sunday before advancing eastward
across the forecast area early next week. The gradient will
diminish during this time as winds veer to ESE leading to an
expansion in sea breeze coverage in the more sheltered locales.
This will be accompanied by the typical increase in afternoon
clouds along with a few showers. Model consensus points toward an
amplifying upper-level trough establishing over the forecast area
during the second half of next week. This will cause further
weakening the local gradient and an expansion of the land and sea
breeze pattern to encompass most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist across the
Hawaiian Islands through tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers
will favor the windward coasts and slopes through the period,
with greater coverage expected during the overnight hours. Brief
MVFR conditions are possible in moderate showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward
areas of Maui and Oahu, and for all of Kauai this afternoon.
Conditions may improve early this evening, then an uptick in
windward showers overnight into tomorrow morning may require
AIRMET Sierra for more mountain obscuration across windward
portions of some of the Hawaiian Islands.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of
the state through Friday, strengthening the trade winds into the
fresh to strong range across the island chain. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is in effect for most waters around Maui and the
Big Island through 6 AM Friday, and for the windier zones in that
area through 6 PM Saturday. A trough of low pressure amplifying
and lingering west of the islands this weekend may cause the
trades to ease a bit and shift to a more east-southeasterly
direction over the western end of the state. Moderate to strong
easterly trades will prevail over the eastern waters.
South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average
through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent
pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south-
southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of
next week. East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average
through Friday, followed by a slight decrease this weekend through
the middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of
the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a
slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...TS
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office