NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
538
FXHW60 PHFO 230134
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 PM HST Wed May 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gentle to locally breezy east to southeast winds will continue to
produce clouds and showers along windward and mauka areas, with a
few clouds and showers that developed over sheltered interior and
leeward sections of the state tapering off later this evening.
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will spread over the state
tonight into Thursday and linger through the first half of next
week. Clouds and showers will favor typical windward and mauka
areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest surface analysis shows the trough of low pressure
has moved westward since this morning and is now roughly 500
miles west- northwest of Kauai. The high northeast of the state
has also moved westward since this morning and is now centered
around 1400 miles north- northeast of Honolulu. Satellite imagery
shows clouds persisting along windward locations and some clouds
that have developed along leeward locations due to seabreezes.
Radar shows some showers have developed over the Koolau range and
interior Oahu this afternoon but has tapered off slightly. The
USGS Punaluu Stream gauge record roughly a third of an inch of
rainfall during this time. Otherwise relatively limited rainfall
elsewhere.
Little change in the forecast philosophy. Moderate to locally
breezy east to southeast winds will transition to more easterly
tonight into Thursday as the high pressure system continues to
slowly shift north of the state through Friday. Then a series of
reinforcing highs will build to our north through the first half
of next week maintaining moderate to breezy easterly trade winds into
much of next week. Guidance also shows drier air filtering into
the region over the next couple of days with dewpoints returning
to near normal by Friday. Weak upper level troughing will give
way to ridging allowing for a more dry and stable trade wind
pattern to develop through the weekend. Expect windward and mauka
showers to increase in intensity and coverage during the overnight
and early morning hours, with a few of these showers briefly
spilling over into leeward areas. This pattern should hold through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy east to southeast winds will strengthen
slightly heading into Thursday and transition to a more typical
trade wind pattern, and VFR conditions will generally prevail.
However, moisture riding in on the trades will focus clouds and a
few showers over windward areas, particularly over the eastern end
of the state where the greatest moisture will reside. MVFR
conditions will be possible in any showers that develop. Unlike
today, winds will not be light enough to see much sea breeze
activity tomorrow.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
windward areas of Maui and the Big Island. Satellite imagery
continues to show some more moisture upstream, so this AIRMET may
be needed through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure remains nearly stationary far northeast of
the state, while a trough over 400 nm northwest of Kauai drifts
westward. As a result, fresh to strong easterly trade winds
Big Island and and Maui waters veer out of the east-southeast
around Oahu and Kauai. Due to the slightly veered flow, a Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all waters around the Big
Island, waters north of Maui, and the Pailolo Channel. As the
trough drifts westward, expect the stronger easterly trades winds
to spread to Oahu and Kauai on Thursday, when Maalaea Bay will be
added to the SCA. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds
will persist into the weekend, and the SCA may be limited to the
typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui Thursday
night or Friday. A decrease in winds is possible on Monday.
The current south swell has declined to just below 2 feet at 12
to 13 seconds at the local PacIOOS buoys this afternoon and will
fade out on Thursday. Surf along south and exposed west shores is
dropping below seasonal average this afternoon, and with only
small inconsistent pulses of southwest swell due for the rest of
the week, small surf will prevail. The next significant south-
southwest swell will be nearly a week and a half away.
The windward PacIOOS buoys are showing trade wind generated seas
of about 6 to 7 feet at 8 to 9 seconds this afternoon, which is
producing rough east shore surf around the seasonal average. Surf
along east facing shores will be near current levels or slightly
higher during the next two days, with a slight decrease possible
this weekend. Surf along north shores will remain very small with
a slight bump possible Sunday and Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast
Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM HST Friday for
Maalaea Bay.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Wroe
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
538
FXHW60 PHFO 230134
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 PM HST Wed May 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gentle to locally breezy east to southeast winds will continue to
produce clouds and showers along windward and mauka areas, with a
few clouds and showers that developed over sheltered interior and
leeward sections of the state tapering off later this evening.
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will spread over the state
tonight into Thursday and linger through the first half of next
week. Clouds and showers will favor typical windward and mauka
areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest surface analysis shows the trough of low pressure
has moved westward since this morning and is now roughly 500
miles west- northwest of Kauai. The high northeast of the state
has also moved westward since this morning and is now centered
around 1400 miles north- northeast of Honolulu. Satellite imagery
shows clouds persisting along windward locations and some clouds
that have developed along leeward locations due to seabreezes.
Radar shows some showers have developed over the Koolau range and
interior Oahu this afternoon but has tapered off slightly. The
USGS Punaluu Stream gauge record roughly a third of an inch of
rainfall during this time. Otherwise relatively limited rainfall
elsewhere.
Little change in the forecast philosophy. Moderate to locally
breezy east to southeast winds will transition to more easterly
tonight into Thursday as the high pressure system continues to
slowly shift north of the state through Friday. Then a series of
reinforcing highs will build to our north through the first half
of next week maintaining moderate to breezy easterly trade winds into
much of next week. Guidance also shows drier air filtering into
the region over the next couple of days with dewpoints returning
to near normal by Friday. Weak upper level troughing will give
way to ridging allowing for a more dry and stable trade wind
pattern to develop through the weekend. Expect windward and mauka
showers to increase in intensity and coverage during the overnight
and early morning hours, with a few of these showers briefly
spilling over into leeward areas. This pattern should hold through
the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy east to southeast winds will strengthen
slightly heading into Thursday and transition to a more typical
trade wind pattern, and VFR conditions will generally prevail.
However, moisture riding in on the trades will focus clouds and a
few showers over windward areas, particularly over the eastern end
of the state where the greatest moisture will reside. MVFR
conditions will be possible in any showers that develop. Unlike
today, winds will not be light enough to see much sea breeze
activity tomorrow.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
windward areas of Maui and the Big Island. Satellite imagery
continues to show some more moisture upstream, so this AIRMET may
be needed through tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure remains nearly stationary far northeast of
the state, while a trough over 400 nm northwest of Kauai drifts
westward. As a result, fresh to strong easterly trade winds
Big Island and and Maui waters veer out of the east-southeast
around Oahu and Kauai. Due to the slightly veered flow, a Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all waters around the Big
Island, waters north of Maui, and the Pailolo Channel. As the
trough drifts westward, expect the stronger easterly trades winds
to spread to Oahu and Kauai on Thursday, when Maalaea Bay will be
added to the SCA. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds
will persist into the weekend, and the SCA may be limited to the
typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui Thursday
night or Friday. A decrease in winds is possible on Monday.
The current south swell has declined to just below 2 feet at 12
to 13 seconds at the local PacIOOS buoys this afternoon and will
fade out on Thursday. Surf along south and exposed west shores is
dropping below seasonal average this afternoon, and with only
small inconsistent pulses of southwest swell due for the rest of
the week, small surf will prevail. The next significant south-
southwest swell will be nearly a week and a half away.
The windward PacIOOS buoys are showing trade wind generated seas
of about 6 to 7 feet at 8 to 9 seconds this afternoon, which is
producing rough east shore surf around the seasonal average. Surf
along east facing shores will be near current levels or slightly
higher during the next two days, with a slight decrease possible
this weekend. Surf along north shores will remain very small with
a slight bump possible Sunday and Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast
Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM HST Friday for
Maalaea Bay.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Wroe
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office