NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
718
FXHW60 PHFO 232049 CCA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1049 AM HST Thu May 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will linger over the
islands into the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor typical
windward and mauka areas during this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Locally breezy trades are focusing limited clouds and showers
windward and mauka at press time. This is courtesy of S to SE flow
above 850mb steering the lion's share of moisture northwestward and
parallel to the island chain. This layer of winds will turn more
onshore in time, but will advect drier air into the region as it
does so leading to a continued modest coverage of windward showers.
This will particularly be the case over the eastern end of the state
where dry advection will be most pronounced. The gradient then
weakens during the weekend as upper-level troughing digs southward
Saturday and Sunday before advancing eastward across the forecast
area early next week. The gradient will diminish during this time
as winds veer to ESE leading to an expansion in sea breeze
coverage in the more sheltered locales. This will be accompanied
by the typical increase in afternoon clouds along with a few
showers. Model consensus points toward an amplifying upper-level
trough becoming established over the forecast area during the
second half of next week. This will cause further weakening the
local gradient and an expansion of the land and sea breeze pattern
to encompass most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist across the
Hawaiian Islands today and tomorrow. Isolated to scattered
showers today will favor the windward coasts and slopes through
the period, with greater coverage expected during the overnight
hours. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in moderate showers.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward
areas of Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island, and for all of
Lanai. Low cloud ceilings should decrease in coverage later this
morning leading to cancelling this AIRMET for most of the affected
areas.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of
the state through Friday, strengthening the trade winds into the
fresh to strong range across the island chain. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is in effect for most waters around Maui and the
Big Island through 6 AM Friday, and for the windier zones in that
area through 6 PM Saturday. A trough of low pressure amplifying
and lingering west of the islands this weekend may cause the
trades to ease a bit and shift to a more east-southeasterly
direction over the western end of the state. Moderate to strong
easterly trades will prevail over the eastern waters.
South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average
through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent
pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south-
southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of
next week. East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average
through Friday, followed by a slight decrease this weekend through
the middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of
the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a
slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...TS
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
718
FXHW60 PHFO 232049 CCA
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1049 AM HST Thu May 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will linger over the
islands into the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor typical
windward and mauka areas during this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Locally breezy trades are focusing limited clouds and showers
windward and mauka at press time. This is courtesy of S to SE flow
above 850mb steering the lion's share of moisture northwestward and
parallel to the island chain. This layer of winds will turn more
onshore in time, but will advect drier air into the region as it
does so leading to a continued modest coverage of windward showers.
This will particularly be the case over the eastern end of the state
where dry advection will be most pronounced. The gradient then
weakens during the weekend as upper-level troughing digs southward
Saturday and Sunday before advancing eastward across the forecast
area early next week. The gradient will diminish during this time
as winds veer to ESE leading to an expansion in sea breeze
coverage in the more sheltered locales. This will be accompanied
by the typical increase in afternoon clouds along with a few
showers. Model consensus points toward an amplifying upper-level
trough becoming established over the forecast area during the
second half of next week. This will cause further weakening the
local gradient and an expansion of the land and sea breeze pattern
to encompass most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist across the
Hawaiian Islands today and tomorrow. Isolated to scattered
showers today will favor the windward coasts and slopes through
the period, with greater coverage expected during the overnight
hours. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in moderate showers.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for windward
areas of Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island, and for all of
Lanai. Low cloud ceilings should decrease in coverage later this
morning leading to cancelling this AIRMET for most of the affected
areas.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will gradually build westward well to the north of
the state through Friday, strengthening the trade winds into the
fresh to strong range across the island chain. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is in effect for most waters around Maui and the
Big Island through 6 AM Friday, and for the windier zones in that
area through 6 PM Saturday. A trough of low pressure amplifying
and lingering west of the islands this weekend may cause the
trades to ease a bit and shift to a more east-southeasterly
direction over the western end of the state. Moderate to strong
easterly trades will prevail over the eastern waters.
South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average
through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent
pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south-
southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of
next week. East shore surf will remain near the seasonal average
through Friday, followed by a slight decrease this weekend through
the middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of
the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a
slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...TS
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office