NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
249
FXHW60 PHFO 031305
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
305 AM HST Mon Jun 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will continue through Tuesday, before easing
Wednesday and giving way to sea and land breezes Thursday and
Friday. A wet trade wind pattern will continue this morning,
otherwise trade wind showers will be on the decrease through the
middle of the week as a more stable airmass gradually settles
overhead. Over the Big Island however, a disturbance aloft may
allow for a thunderstorm or two to develop during the afternoon
hours today and Tuesday. Very dry conditions will overspread the
islands by Thursday and linger through the weekend, greatly
limiting shower activity across the entire state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 850
miles north-northeast of Honolulu, driving breezy trade winds
across the island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly
cloudy conditions for windward and mauka areas, with partly
cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows
scattered to numerous showers affecting windward slopes and
coasts, with some of these showers spilling Leeward at times. Main
short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain
chances.
The high to the north-northeast of the islands will weaken as it
shifts southeastward during the next few days, with the ridge axis
then moving over or very near the western islands Thursday and
Friday. Breezy trade winds will continue through Tuesday, before
easing into the moderate range for Wednesday. The winds are then
expected to become light and variable over the smaller islands
Thursday and Friday, allowing for daytime sea breezes and
overnight land breezes to be dominant. Meanwhile, light trades
will likely hold in the unprotected areas of the Big Island. The
surface ridge axis is forecast to shift northward over the
weekend, which should bring a return and gradual strengthening of
the trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, a band of low clouds will
keep rather wet conditions in place over windward slopes and
coasts this morning. We should see a typical reduction in trade
wind shower coverage by late morning into the afternoon hours, and
instability aloft will likely allow for a thunderstorm or two to
pop over the Big Island and possibly over the slopes of Haleakala
on Maui as well. Fairly typical trade wind weather should then
prevail tonight into Tuesday morning, with the trade wind
inversion then crashing down to around 5 kft greatly limiting
trade wind showers for Tuesday afternoon. Once again, instability
aloft will likely allow a thunderstorm or two to pop over the Big
Island interior during the afternoon hours. Rather dry trade wind
weather will continue Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the
trade wind inversion holds around 5 kft, with most leeward areas
not seeing any rain. Little change in the trade wind inversion
height is expected Thursday through the weekend, greatly limiting
shower activity across the entire state. We will likely see a few
showers pop over the leeward slopes of the Big Island each
afternoon, with very little shower activity elsewhere. A slight
increase in windward showers is possible over the weekend as the
trades gradually return.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to strong trades will continue for the next couple of
days, as surface high pressure remains north of the area. Low cigs
and SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas with periods of MVFR
conds possible. VFR should prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Big Island as well as N
thru SE areas of the smaller islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turb S
through W of terrain due to the breezy trades.
AMD NOT SKED for PMDY as equipment remains unavailable with no
time table for return to service.
AMD NOT SKED for PHLI as equipment is unavailable. Techs are
scheduled for later today.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong surface ridge north of the islands will remain stationary
through Tuesday leading to strong east northeast trade winds. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded for the all zones
around Maui County and the Big Island and select areas of Kauai
and Oahu through Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, unseasonably
strong low pressure rapidly developing north of the area will
weaken the high and displace the ridge southward over the islands.
Winds will respond by becoming light and variable Thursday and
Friday.
A conveyor belt set up in the south Pacific has lead to an
extended period of elevated surf along south facing shores through
potentially the first half of June with numerous swell pulses
expected, mainly from the south- southwest. The current south
swell has peaked, leveled off and will gradually ease before
additional long period energy arrives later in the week. A High
Surf Advisory (HSA) is likely to be needed for the largest of the
swells, which may not arrive until next weekend.
A small, long-period north swell has begun to fill in early this
morning, it is expected to build through the day, and continue
into Tuesday, with the potential for a small follow- up swell
later in the week. A small north swell is also possible next
weekend. Trade winds will continue to generate short-period wind
waves the next couple of days, leading to choppy surf along
exposed east facing shores. Wind waves will diminish significantly
after Wednesday coinciding with the light winds.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
249
FXHW60 PHFO 031305
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
305 AM HST Mon Jun 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will continue through Tuesday, before easing
Wednesday and giving way to sea and land breezes Thursday and
Friday. A wet trade wind pattern will continue this morning,
otherwise trade wind showers will be on the decrease through the
middle of the week as a more stable airmass gradually settles
overhead. Over the Big Island however, a disturbance aloft may
allow for a thunderstorm or two to develop during the afternoon
hours today and Tuesday. Very dry conditions will overspread the
islands by Thursday and linger through the weekend, greatly
limiting shower activity across the entire state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 850
miles north-northeast of Honolulu, driving breezy trade winds
across the island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly
cloudy conditions for windward and mauka areas, with partly
cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows
scattered to numerous showers affecting windward slopes and
coasts, with some of these showers spilling Leeward at times. Main
short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain
chances.
The high to the north-northeast of the islands will weaken as it
shifts southeastward during the next few days, with the ridge axis
then moving over or very near the western islands Thursday and
Friday. Breezy trade winds will continue through Tuesday, before
easing into the moderate range for Wednesday. The winds are then
expected to become light and variable over the smaller islands
Thursday and Friday, allowing for daytime sea breezes and
overnight land breezes to be dominant. Meanwhile, light trades
will likely hold in the unprotected areas of the Big Island. The
surface ridge axis is forecast to shift northward over the
weekend, which should bring a return and gradual strengthening of
the trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, a band of low clouds will
keep rather wet conditions in place over windward slopes and
coasts this morning. We should see a typical reduction in trade
wind shower coverage by late morning into the afternoon hours, and
instability aloft will likely allow for a thunderstorm or two to
pop over the Big Island and possibly over the slopes of Haleakala
on Maui as well. Fairly typical trade wind weather should then
prevail tonight into Tuesday morning, with the trade wind
inversion then crashing down to around 5 kft greatly limiting
trade wind showers for Tuesday afternoon. Once again, instability
aloft will likely allow a thunderstorm or two to pop over the Big
Island interior during the afternoon hours. Rather dry trade wind
weather will continue Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the
trade wind inversion holds around 5 kft, with most leeward areas
not seeing any rain. Little change in the trade wind inversion
height is expected Thursday through the weekend, greatly limiting
shower activity across the entire state. We will likely see a few
showers pop over the leeward slopes of the Big Island each
afternoon, with very little shower activity elsewhere. A slight
increase in windward showers is possible over the weekend as the
trades gradually return.
&&
.AVIATION...
Breezy to strong trades will continue for the next couple of
days, as surface high pressure remains north of the area. Low cigs
and SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas with periods of MVFR
conds possible. VFR should prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Big Island as well as N
thru SE areas of the smaller islands.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turb S
through W of terrain due to the breezy trades.
AMD NOT SKED for PMDY as equipment remains unavailable with no
time table for return to service.
AMD NOT SKED for PHLI as equipment is unavailable. Techs are
scheduled for later today.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong surface ridge north of the islands will remain stationary
through Tuesday leading to strong east northeast trade winds. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded for the all zones
around Maui County and the Big Island and select areas of Kauai
and Oahu through Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, unseasonably
strong low pressure rapidly developing north of the area will
weaken the high and displace the ridge southward over the islands.
Winds will respond by becoming light and variable Thursday and
Friday.
A conveyor belt set up in the south Pacific has lead to an
extended period of elevated surf along south facing shores through
potentially the first half of June with numerous swell pulses
expected, mainly from the south- southwest. The current south
swell has peaked, leveled off and will gradually ease before
additional long period energy arrives later in the week. A High
Surf Advisory (HSA) is likely to be needed for the largest of the
swells, which may not arrive until next weekend.
A small, long-period north swell has begun to fill in early this
morning, it is expected to build through the day, and continue
into Tuesday, with the potential for a small follow- up swell
later in the week. A small north swell is also possible next
weekend. Trade winds will continue to generate short-period wind
waves the next couple of days, leading to choppy surf along
exposed east facing shores. Wind waves will diminish significantly
after Wednesday coinciding with the light winds.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward
Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward
Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Shigesato
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office