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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 010132
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
332 PM HST Thu Jun 30 2022
Surface high pressure is centered far north of the area. This
places the islands in a breezy to locally windy trade wind
environment. A few passing showers can be expected mainly over
windward and mauka areas. An upper level trough will pass across
the area from east to west Saturday through Sunday night with an
uptick in showers expected especially for windward and mauka
areas. A drier trade wind weather pattern is then expected Monday
Surface high pressure is centered far north of the area placing
the islands in a breezy to locally windy trade wind environment.
Moisture embedded in the trades is providing for passing showers
over windward and mauka areas with most leeward locations
remaining dry. Daytime heating will cause clouds and few showers
to form over the Kona slopes this afternoon and evening. Some thin
high clouds will occasionally move over the area from time to
time in southwesterly flow aloft. Little change in this weather
pattern is expected through Thursday.
A Wind Advisory is currently in effect for the summit area of
Haleakala where wind speeds are currently blowing above 45 MPH. We
will also have to keep an eye on the Big Island summits as winds
may also increase to advisory levels over the next day or so.
As we head into the weekend, a trough aloft is forecast to be near
the Big Island on Saturday, then pass from east to west across the
state Saturday night through Sunday night. This will likely
destabilize the airmass a bit across the area. Shower activity is
expected to increase with most showers falling over windward and
mauka areas. The trade winds will be sufficiently strong enough
for some brief passing showers to fall over select leeward areas
at times. There may also be some increase in showers over the Kona
slopes during the afternoon and evening hours with a few locally
heavy downpours possible.
The upper trough is expected to be west of the area Monday and
Tuesday with a drier trade wind weather pattern expected. Little
change is expected on into Thursday.
Visible satellite imagery still shows a large area of mostly
stable, mid-level clouds moving into windward Big Island and Maui
this afternoon, with some showers embedded. Moderate to breezy
trade winds will continue for the next several days as strong high
pressure remains far north of the area. Showers and any accompanying
MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities will be brief
and mainly affect windward and mauka sections across the state.
However, VFR conditions will dominate in most areas.Afternoon and
evening cloud buildups over leeward Big Island will gradually
clear out overnight.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
downwind of the higher terrain of all islands due to the breezy
A strong 1031 mb surface high centered about 1200 miles NNE of
the islands will move slowly W, and strengthen a little through
early next week. Strong to near-gale E trade winds will prevail,
with winds strongest in the channels between the islands. A Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) for most zones has been extended through
Surf will be below High Surf Advisory levels along all shores
through the next week as the current diminishing S swell continues
to fade through Friday. Only background swell from the S and SE
is expected thereafter. Trade wind swell will bring rough and
choppy surf to E facing shores. Otherwise, no significant swell
sources are seen.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Haleakala Summit.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office