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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

486
FXHW60 PHFO 171919
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
919 AM HST Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and pleasant conditions will prevail into next week.
Light north winds will strengthen and veer northeast by the end of
today then remain in place into next week, with a slight weakening
forecast for Saturday. Showers will be minimal, but any incoming
precipitation will focus windward and mauka.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough just west of the
state. High pressure at the surface is centered far to the
northwest resulting in a light north northwest flow bringing in a
dry and stable airmass. Visible satellite and radar shows low
clouds and isolated showers across Kauai and windward Big Island,
while mostly sunny skies persist across the rest of the state.
With the light winds, expect localized sea breezes this afternoon
with trade winds strengthening by the end of the day as the
driving high to the northwest shifts closer.

Upstream showery clouds may moving in from the north northwest tonight
into Thursday morning and possibly bring a few showers along
windward slopes, but precipitation amounts will be minimal.
Trades will become moderate to fresh Thursday into Friday with
isolated windward showers. Winds will briefly taper off Saturday
as a system to the northeast fades, but will veer easterly and
strengthen again to fresh breezes Sunday into the first half of
next week. The relatively dry and stable weather will also
continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to locally moderate north to northeast flow will gradually
shift more northeasterly and strengthen through Thursday. VFR
will dominate over most areas from Oahu to the Big Island through
tonight, though a small pocket of moisture will impact windward
Big Island this morning. MVFR ceilings will affect northern and
windward slopes of Kauai and will spread to Oahu on Thursday. No
AIRMETs are in effect at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate northerlies will veer to the northeast today.
High pressure will build north of the region and drift east as
trades persist into next week, becoming moderate to fresh by this
weekend.

Surf along south facing shores will hold through Thursday as
overlapping south swells will keep elevated surf through the end
of the week. The current northwest swell will become increasingly
north as it gradually lowers through Thursday. Surf along east
facing shores remains small through late week before trending up
slightly as trade strengthen late this week.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...JVC

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office