• Home
• MK Forecast
• Trends
• Statistics

• Current Conditions
• Seeing
• Web Cams
• Interactive Map
• Road Conditions
• NWS Bulletins

• Satellite
• Geostationary
• Polar Orbiter

• Radar
• Models
• GFS
• WRF

• Archive
• Links
• Symposium on Seeing
• Glossary
• Feedback
• Disclaimer

Affiliations

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: Select a text product: Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance Hawaiian Islands 7-day Zone Forecast Terminal Aerodome Foreasts (TAFS) Area Forecast for Hawaii and Adjacent Coastal Waters AIRMETs for IFR Conditions, Turbulence, and Icing Oahu Surf Observation and Forecast/Coastal Forecast for Hawaiian Waters Offshore Forecast for Hawaiian Waters North Pacific High Seas Forecast South Pacific High Seas Forecast Hawaiian Islands Automated Surface Observation System Hourly Weather Roundup Hawaiian Islands Wind Data Hawaiian Islands Rainfall Summary Daily Hawaii Cooperative Observations

Narrow the Menu List Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special

Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 294 FXHW60 PHFO 240632 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 830 PM HST Sat Mar 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through Monday as a surface high pressure stays north of the islands. Modest windward rainfall will prevail through the rest of the weekend, followed by an increase in precipitation on Monday. Trade winds steadily will drop on Tuesday and Wednesday, as a front from the northwest will affect portions of the state on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Locally breezy trade wind weather continues across the state this evening, as a high pressure stays far north of the area, providing the winds. Moisture carried by the winds will reach the islands at times, bringing showers to mainly windward areas. There are also high clouds streaming over the state, keeping skies a little more cloudy. Little change in the winds is expected through the rest of the weekend into Monday as the surface high pretty much remains far north of the islands. Low clouds embedded in the trade winds will reach the area at times, with showers focusing along windward areas. The atmosphere will remain somewhat stable and with the locally breezy trade winds prevailing, expect rainfall totals to be limited. An increase in shower activity is expected Monday as an upper level trough is forecast to approach the islands from the west. Furthermore, an area of moisture currently north through northeast of Kauai will sag southwest, spreading across the area. Rainfall will still be focused over the windward slopes, though some showers may reach the lee areas of the smaller islands. Trade winds will steadily decline on Tuesday and will be disrupted on Wednesday as a front approaches the area from the northwest. As the front advances closer to the area , it will push a surface ridge to the island vicinity, resulting in winds weakening significantly on Wednesday. Expect a land and sea breeze weather regime to take over, with afternoon clouds and showers developing over interior sections. Although not much increase in low level moisture is expected, an approaching mid to upper level trough will create some instability. Hence, briefly heavy showers are possible on Wednesday, specially during the afternoon and evening hours. Looks like this pending front will reach the state on Thursday, with shower bands associated with the front affecting the northern islands. Forecast models still differ upon how far south this front will advance, with the old ECMWF having the frontal band stalling over the northern islands while the latest GFS has it reaching the Big Island late Thursday. Regardless, do expect a return of the north to northeasterly winds to much of the islands by late Thursday, while Kauai and Oahu will see much of the wet weather associated with this system. Both models do hint lingering moisture from the dissipated front will continue to affect the area by the next weekend. && .AVIATION... A high pressure center far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate trade winds in the forecast for the next few days. Showers moving along with the trade winds will bring periods of showers with some MVFR cloud ceilings over the windward mountain slopes of each island. Low cloud ceilings associated with a remnant frontal band are drifting across the island of Kauai this evening and AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration through 10Z tonight. Low cloud ceilings over Kauai will decrease after 10Z with the AIRMET Sierra likely dropping before sunrise on Sunday morning. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will keep a moderate to strong trade wind flow in place through Monday night. The trades will ease Tuesday and Tuesday night as a front approaches from the northwest, with winds becoming light and variable by Wednesday. There are some differences with respect to the progressiveness of the front moving through the island chain Wednesday night and Thursday and this will have an impact on wind speeds and directions. The models then come back in line by late in the week and into next weekend, showing moderate trade winds redeveloping across the marine area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most waters tonight due to winds, elevated seas or a combination of the two. The current north-northwest swell should drop sufficiently by late tonight that the SCA can be cancelled in most areas. Strong winds will continue across the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island Sunday through Monday, and the SCA will likely need to be extended for these areas later tonight. The current north-northwest swell will continue to decline through the rest of the weekend. A small reinforcement out of a more northerly direction is expected Monday night through Wednesday. Overlapping long-period northwest swells will move through during the mid to late week time frame, with surf possibly approaching low end advisory levels Thursday through Friday along north and west facing shores. Otherwise, surf should remain below advisory thresholds through the next week. Surf along east facing shores will rise tonight through Monday due to the building trades. A downward trend is expected Monday night through Wednesday as the trades weaken. Surf along south facing shores will remain small most days with mainly background long period southerly pulses and short-period southeast energy expected. There could be a bit of a bump Wednesday through Friday as a small long period south swell arrives from the southern hemisphere. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters- Big Island Windward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hui AVIATION...Bohlin MARINE...Jelsema Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

Home | Forecast | Current OBS | Satellite | Radar | Models | Archive | Links | Disclaimer

This page was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman