Current Conditions | ||
Temp | ![]() | 6.2 C |
RH | ![]() | 32 % |
Wind | ![]() | NE 9 mph |
Road | ![]() | Closed |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 194 FXHW60 PHFO 081341 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 341 AM HST Sun Dec 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Light winds will continue through the first half of the week as a front moves into the area and stalls to the north. Outside of a few clouds and showers setting up over interior areas each afternoon due to sea breezes, mostly dry and stable conditions are anticipated. Increasing moisture associated with another front that is forecast to move down the island chain will bring increasing rainfall chances and gusty trades by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery showed very dry conditions aloft due to a ridge extending eastward across the islands. Satellite data and the early morning upper air soundings at Lihue and Hilo reflect these dry conditions with precipitable water (PW) measurements just over an inch. The latest surface analysis showed a ridge extending southwestward to an area near the western end of the state and a cold front located a few hundred miles northwest of Kauai. Outside of a few light showers over the adjacent waters, mostly clear and dry conditions are in place. Expect this trend to hold through the early morning hours today with only a few showers possible over interior areas this afternoon. The latest short-term (through Tuesday) guidance remains in decent agreement and depicts mostly dry and stable conditions prevailing as the aforementioned front stalls and diminishes just north of the area and the ridge sets up over the islands. Light and variable winds will translate to a land and sea breeze regime continuing. Although dry conditions will prevail, a few clouds and showers setting up over interior areas can't be ruled out each afternoon due to the sea breezes, especially over Kauai near the stalled front. For the extended period (Wednesday through next weekend), guidance depicts lowering upper heights associated with a strong short wave trough approaching and moving over the region Wednesday through Friday. Although it remains too early to determine any specifics, increasing moisture and rainfall chances along with gusty trades remain a possibility by or come Friday as the attendant cold front moves into the area. Breezy trades along with a drying trend will be possible next weekend as high pressure builds north of the state in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION... Winds continue to be light with sea breezes in the afternoons and land breezes at night. This weather pattern will continue into Monday. There is not a lot of moisture across the state. There may be a few showers along the windward slopes. Other than those very isolated showers, which may cause brief MVFR conditions, the rest of the state should see VFR conditions. There are no AIRMETs currently in effect or expected. && .MARINE... A ridge of high pressure will remain over the island chain today and tonight as a front approaches from the northwest. This will keep a light and variable wind regime in place across the marine area. The front will stall out north of Kauai Monday through Wednesday, with the ridge axis shifting back north of the islands, bringing a return of light to locally moderate trades. A front is expected to approach from the northwest late in the work week, and depending on how far south this front progresses, could bring strong, possibly near Gale force winds to marine area Thursday night into next weekend. A north-northeast swell is bringing 10 feet seas to portions of the marine area this morning, with seas expected to subside as the day progresses. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for waters exposed to this swell through Noon today. This swell may also produce harbor surges at both the Kahului and Hilo harbors. The current north-northeast swell has been slow to lower so far this morning, but is expected to trend downward later today. As a result, the High Surf Warning (HSW) for east facing shores and High Surf Advisory (HSA) for north facing shores has been extended through Noon today. The HSW will likely be transitioned to an advisory for east facing shores later today, while north facing shores will likely see surf drop below HSA thresholds. The swell will continue to lower tonight and Monday, likely dropping below advisory thresholds along all shores by Monday morning. A new northwest swell is expected to arrive later today, then gradually build tonight and Monday. Advisory level surf will likely impact exposed north and west facing shores late Monday through mid week, before a much larger northwest swell arrives. This larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday, likely pushing surf to warning levels along north and west facing shores beginning during the day Wednesday and holding at warning levels through Thursday and possibly into Friday. This swell is expected to lower Friday and Friday night, with yet another large, possibly advisory level, northwest swell arriving over the weekend. No other significant swells are expected. No other significant swells are expected. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Warning until noon HST today for Kauai Windward-Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala-Big Island North and East. High Surf Advisory until noon HST today for Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Molokai Leeward-Maui Central Valley. Small Craft Advisory until noon HST today for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gibbs AVIATION...Chevalier MARINE...Jelsema Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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