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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 260158
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
358 PM HST Mon May 25 2020
Lighter winds and mostly dry weather are expected through Tuesday,
with a few showers possible, mainly during the afternoon and
evenings. Moderate trade winds are expected to return as early as
Tuesday afternoon, and remain in place into next weekend,
delivering scattered showers to windward and mauka areas.
Afternoon soundings from Lihue and Hilo show a strong inversion at
7000 feet, which has helped limit the shower activity this
afternoon. For tonight and Tuesday, we should see a similar
weather pattern to the past few days with land breezes developing
overnight, and sea breezes developing during the afternoon for
select leeward areas. One weather aspect that will be different
will be the increase in high clouds starting Tuesday afternoon. An
upper level low southwest of the state will bring a stream of high
clouds late Tuesday through Thursday. There are still some
uncertainty on how thick the clouds will be, but at this time we
are expecting the clouds to be relatively thin.
As a high begins to build north of the state on Tuesday, we should
see moderate trade winds return as early as Tuesday afternoon.
Starting Wednesday, we should be back to a more typical trade wind
pattern across the state. Trade winds are expected to hold at
moderate speeds (10 to 20 mph) through most of the week with
scattered showers over windward and mauka areas. Due to a stable
atmosphere aloft, any showers should be on the lighter side and
shower activity will likely favor early morning and overnight
Sea breezes along leeward locations will persist through late
this afternoon with weak east southeast background flow. Isolated
to scattered showers, mainly over the higher terrain, will
diminish after sundown. Then, by tonight, isolated light showers
are forecast to develop along the windward coasts and slopes.
Brief MVFR conditions may occur due to this activity, but not
expecting anything widespread.
No AIRMETs are in effect at this time.
A surface ridge stalling about 200 nm north of Kauai will
maintain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds around the Big
Island and Maui and gentle to moderate east-southeast winds from
Molokai to Kauai into Tuesday. A front passing north of the ridge
will dissipate later Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing stronger
high pressure to build far north of the state. As a result,
trades will surge back over the islands late Tuesday then
strengthen on Wednesday. Winds may reach Small Craft Advisory
strength across the typically windy waters around the Big Island
and Maui Wednesday into the weekend.
Surf will remain below advisory levels on all shores this week.
The current mix of south-southwest and south-southeast swells will
decline Tuesday and Wednesday. A pulse of south-southwest swell
will push surf to around May average late Thursday through
Saturday, then decline. The current northwest swell will lower
through tomorrow and will be reinforced by another small northwest
swell on Wednesday. This swell will shift out of the north by Friday,
with surf just below May average holding through the weekend. Surf
along east facing shores will decline Tuesday and remain below
May average through the week.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office