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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 292019
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1019 AM HST Wed Jun 29 2022
Surface high pressure is centered far north of the area. This
places the islands in a moderate to breezy trade wind environment.
A few passing showers can be expected mainly over windward and
mauka areas. An upper level trough will pass across the area from
east to west Saturday and Sunday with an uptick in showers
expected especially for windward and mauka areas. A drier trade
wind weather pattern is then expected Monday and Tuesday.
Surface high pressure is centered far north of the area placing
the islands in a moderate to breezy trade wind environment. A
ridge axis aloft is keeping the airmass rather stable with
inversion heights between 7,500 and 8,000 feet. Moisture embedded
in the trades is providing for passing showers over windward and
mauka areas with most leeward locations remaining dry. Daytime
heating will cause clouds and few showers to form over the Kona
slopes during the afternoon and evening. Some thin high clouds
will occasionally move over the area from time to time in southwesterly
flow aloft. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through
As we head into the weekend, a trough aloft is forecast to be near
the Big Island on Saturday, then pass from east to west across the
state Saturday night through Sunday night. This will likely
destabilize the airmass a bit across the area. Shower activity is
expected to increase with most showers falling over windward and
mauka areas. The trade winds will be sufficiently strong enough
for some brief passing showers to fall over select leeward areas
at times. There may also be some increase in showers over the Kona
slopes during the afternoon and evening hours with a few locally
heavy downpours possible.
The upper trough is expected to be west of the area Monday and
Tuesday with a drier trade wind weather pattern expected.
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue across the
state for at least the next couple of days. As a result, low
clouds and showers will favor north through east facing sections
of the islands with isolated showers spilling over into leeward
areas from time to time, especially in the late night and early
morning hours. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at
most locations, though MVFR ceilings and visibilities will remain
possible within any showers that develop.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
downwind of the higher terrain of all islands. This AIRMET is
likely to persist through at least the next 48 hours.
Additionally, an upper-level jet is currently located just west
of the state this morning. Models suggest that this jet will
weaken today as it slowly retreats westward away from the island
chain, however, so an AIRMET for upper-level turbulence has not
been issued at this time.
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds have returned and are here to
stay through the upcoming weekend as the ridge strengthens to the
north. Trades will become stronger Friday through the weekend as
1030-1035 mb high sets up due north of the islands. Seas will
respond and become rough, potentially reaching the 10 ft Small
Craft level over the waters south of the Big Island and in the
Alenuihaha Channel by the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will hold near the advisory level
today, then ease through the second half of the week as the
reinforcing shot of south swell moves through. Buoy observations
south of the islands continue to show a decent amount of energy
centered around the 15 second band late this morning.
Surf along east facing shores will steadily trend up through the
second half of the week as the local and upstream trades
strengthen. This will result in rough conditions for easterly
exposures Friday through the weekend. Confidence remains low for
any long- period pulse locally associated with former Tropical
Cyclone Celia in the far eastern Pacific.
Surf along north facing shores will remain at seasonal levels
(near flat) through the weekend.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office