| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 9.2 C |
| RH | | 6 % |
| Wind | | NE 21 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 204 FXHW60 PHFO 292019 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1019 AM HST Wed Jun 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure is centered far north of the area. This places the islands in a moderate to breezy trade wind environment. A few passing showers can be expected mainly over windward and mauka areas. An upper level trough will pass across the area from east to west Saturday and Sunday with an uptick in showers expected especially for windward and mauka areas. A drier trade wind weather pattern is then expected Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure is centered far north of the area placing the islands in a moderate to breezy trade wind environment. A ridge axis aloft is keeping the airmass rather stable with inversion heights between 7,500 and 8,000 feet. Moisture embedded in the trades is providing for passing showers over windward and mauka areas with most leeward locations remaining dry. Daytime heating will cause clouds and few showers to form over the Kona slopes during the afternoon and evening. Some thin high clouds will occasionally move over the area from time to time in southwesterly flow aloft. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through Friday. As we head into the weekend, a trough aloft is forecast to be near the Big Island on Saturday, then pass from east to west across the state Saturday night through Sunday night. This will likely destabilize the airmass a bit across the area. Shower activity is expected to increase with most showers falling over windward and mauka areas. The trade winds will be sufficiently strong enough for some brief passing showers to fall over select leeward areas at times. There may also be some increase in showers over the Kona slopes during the afternoon and evening hours with a few locally heavy downpours possible. The upper trough is expected to be west of the area Monday and Tuesday with a drier trade wind weather pattern expected. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue across the state for at least the next couple of days. As a result, low clouds and showers will favor north through east facing sections of the islands with isolated showers spilling over into leeward areas from time to time, especially in the late night and early morning hours. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at most locations, though MVFR ceilings and visibilities will remain possible within any showers that develop. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of the higher terrain of all islands. This AIRMET is likely to persist through at least the next 48 hours. Additionally, an upper-level jet is currently located just west of the state this morning. Models suggest that this jet will weaken today as it slowly retreats westward away from the island chain, however, so an AIRMET for upper-level turbulence has not been issued at this time. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds have returned and are here to stay through the upcoming weekend as the ridge strengthens to the north. Trades will become stronger Friday through the weekend as 1030-1035 mb high sets up due north of the islands. Seas will respond and become rough, potentially reaching the 10 ft Small Craft level over the waters south of the Big Island and in the Alenuihaha Channel by the weekend. Surf along south facing shores will hold near the advisory level today, then ease through the second half of the week as the reinforcing shot of south swell moves through. Buoy observations south of the islands continue to show a decent amount of energy centered around the 15 second band late this morning. Surf along east facing shores will steadily trend up through the second half of the week as the local and upstream trades strengthen. This will result in rough conditions for easterly exposures Friday through the weekend. Confidence remains low for any long- period pulse locally associated with former Tropical Cyclone Celia in the far eastern Pacific. Surf along north facing shores will remain at seasonal levels (near flat) through the weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burke AVIATION...Vaughan MARINE...Foster Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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