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RH13 %
WindENE 20 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

269
FXHW60 PHFO 221331
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
331 AM HST Sat Feb 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will veer to southeasterlies and gradually weaken through
Sunday as a high far northeast of the state moves eastward and a
front approaches from the northwest. Trades will gradually
strengthen again during the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong surface high far northeast of Hawaii continues to track
eastward and, as a result, winds are slowly weakening and veering
to southeasterlies this morning. This trend will continue through
Sunday. Satellite loop shows scattered to patchy broken low
clouds clinging to windward and southeast-facing slopes of the
islands, while radar shows scattered moderate showers within these
clouds.

As winds weaken, expect development of sea breezes and increased
interior cloud cover Sunday afternoon, followed by clearing at
night. An approaching front will weaken and stall just northwest
of Kauai on Monday, with little direct impact to the state. High
pressure behind the front will usher in trades that will overrun
the front and reach the islands Monday into Monday night. Trades
will strengthen during the first half of next week and bring
additional clouds and showers to windward locations through the
remainder of the week. Trades may become breezy through the second
half of the week, resulting in showers reaching leeward sides of
the smaller islands. Models show an upper trough digging southward
across the Big Island next weekend, but with large differences in
timing and position.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through today. Areas of concern
for MVFR visibility and ceilings are along the windward slopes and
coasts due to low clouds and SHRA. AIRMET Tango for tempo
moderate low-level turbulence has been canceled with strong trade
winds abating last night. Winds will adopt a ESE direction today
as a front approaches from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high remains far northeast of the area, with a ridge
extending back toward the southwest. The pressure gradient south
of the ridge continues to produce breezy to locally strong
easterly trade winds over the coastal waters. As a result, a Small
Craft Advisory has been extended through this afternoon for the
Alenuihaha Channel and the other waters around the Big Island.

The high will move southeast over the next couple of days, with
winds easing and veering to the southeast over Hawaiian waters as
the high moves farther away. Meanwhile, a front will approach
from the northwest, with a trough forming ahead of the front over
the northeast coastal waters. The front will enter the northwest
offshore waters Sunday night, then dissipate. A new high moving
east behind the front will bring a return of trade winds across
Hawaiian waters by Monday night.

Surf will remain elevated along east facing shores of the islands
due to strong trade winds, but surf has dropped below the High
Surf Advisory threshold. This surf will continue to gradually
subside through early next week as the trades fade.

A new northwest swell has been slow to arrive, but it is expected
to be small to moderate in size. It will likely peak later today
or tonight, then gradually lower Sunday through Monday. Surf from
this swell will remain well below the advisory threshold. A very
large northwest swell is expected to arrive Monday night. Surf
from that swell will peak well above the advisory level Tuesday,
and the surf will likely reach warning levels along north and west
facing shores. Surf will remain small along south facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Powell
AVIATION...Morrison
MARINE...Kinel

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office