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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

524
FXHW60 PHFO 281908
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
908 AM HST Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong and gusty easterly trade winds are expected into Friday as
high pressure strengthens north of the state. Showers will favor
windward and mountain areas with some reaching the leeward areas.
Drier and more stable conditions will return over the weekend,
with the easterly trades easing into the moderate to breezy range.
Rainfall chances could trend up again early next week as an upper
disturbance moves through and trade winds increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 mb surface high north of the area will drive strong trade
winds over the next 24 hours. This has prompted a Wind Advisory
for the typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island
through tonight. In addition to the winds, spotty windward shower
coverage is expected, especially overnight through the morning
periods due to a sufficient amount of low level moisture and a
weak upper trough in the area. These showers will be moving
through swiftly with minimal accumulations anticipated.

Drier and more stable conditions will briefly return over the
weekend as upper heights rise and precipitable water dip to
around an inch. Trade winds are expected to ease into the moderate
range due to a weakness forming in the ridge as a front passes to
the north.

A return of breezy to strong trades is anticipated through the
first half of next week as high pressure builds north of the state
(near 1050 mb). Model differences still remain with the GFS being
stronger with the winds, while the ECMWF has a more moderate
solution. Regardless of these differences, both depict an upper
trough digging southward over the region creating an increased
chance of heavier trade wind showers Monday through midweek.


&&

.AVIATION...
A surface high pressure north of the islands will strengthen and
bring strong trades through Friday. SHRA and low cigs possible
windward and mauka locations. Coverage will be more scattered in
nature and thus no AIRMETs are out for MTN OBSC. AIRMET Tango out
for tempo moderate turb lee of the island terrain. Also for 30 kt
or greater winds from Molokai to the Big Island.


&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure north of the state will support strong to
gale force trade winds across Hawaiian waters through at least
tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect through early Friday for
the Alenuihaha and Pailolo Channels, and a Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) is in effect for the remaining coastal waters. It is likely
that the SCA will need to be extended for at least some of the
windier zones as locally strong trades continue in these areas on
Friday. Next week, another high pressure building into the region
from the northwest is expected to continue the breezy trend across
the coastal waters.

Strong trades will create rough and choppy surf along east facing
shores into next week. A small medium period swell from the
north-northwest (330 degree) will arrive this morning, keeping
surf elevated but far below advisory level across north and west
facing shores. A series of small medium to long period northwest
swells are expected through early next week. Mainly background
surf will continue for south facing shores through the weekend
with some long period energy arriving early next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Lanai Mauka-Maui
Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Lanai
Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island
Southeast-Big Island North.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Friday for Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for remaining coastal
waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Vaughan

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office