NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
258
FXHW60 PHFO 021313
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
313 AM HST Thu May 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will strengthen today, then become breezy Friday
through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor typical
windward slopes, with an increase in showers expected this
weekend through the first half of next week as a disturbance
aloft passes overhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Stable easterly trade wind flow remains over the islands early
this morning with a weak trough northwest of Kauai and a 1030 mb
surface high to the far northeast. Satellite imagery continues to
show partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region, with radar
showing isolated showers across mainly windward slopes. Expect
trades to strengthen today as the trough weakens further and high
pressure builds over the region, with clouds and showers favoring
windward and mauka areas. With no areas of organized moisture
upstream of the islands rain totals will remain limited today.
Breezy to locally windy trades look to develop over the state on
Friday, then continue through the weekend as high pressure settles
to the northeast. This will drive an uptick in clouds and showers
over windward and mauka areas, with a few showers drifting into
leeward areas due to the stronger winds. Expect the strongest
winds over the windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island.
Guidance continues to show an upper level low stalling to the west
of Kauai over the weekend, then slowly moving across the state
early next week. As the low moves across the state expect a boost
in to our trade wind showers, with a few brief downpours possible
through the first half of next week. Details are still uncertain,
but windward and mauka areas could become quite showery through
early next week, especially across the western end of the state
where the best instability exists. Guidance also continue to hint
at an outside chance for some isolated thunderstorms during this
time period.
Expect a return to a more typical moderate to breezy trade wind
pattern by Wednesday as the upper low moves away from the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate E winds will gradually strengthen today. SHRA and isol
MVFR conds expected windward and mauka locations. VFR conditions
will prevail leeward, except for isolated areas of MVFR conds over
leeward Big Island in the afternoon and evening.
No AIRMETs are posted, but increased low-level turb to the lee of
the terrain is expected by late this morning, likely prompting
the issuance of AIRMET Tango.
AMD NOT SKED in for Midway due to missing wind speed and direction.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will gradually return
today as a high pressure far northeast of the state shifts south
and a weak trough northwest of the state moves farther west.
Trades will strengthen to fresh to locally strong Friday and
persist into early next week as another high builds north of the
state and remains nearly stationary. The Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) for typical windy waters around Maui and the Big Island has
been extended through Monday. Maalaea Bay has also been added to
the SCA as well as the wind direction becomes for favorable for
this area and winds strengthen. Additional waters will likely be
added Friday as trade winds continue to strengthen and expand in
coverage.
Tiny surf will persist along north and west facing shores through
Friday. A small, long period northwest swell is expected to fill
in Friday night and peak Saturday, bringing small surf along
north and west facing shores. Another small, long period
northwest swell will fill in late Sunday, maintaining small surf
along north and west facing shores into early next week. Small
background south swells will continue into Saturday, providing
tiny surf for south facing shores. A small, long period south
swell may arrive Sunday providing a boost in surf along south
facing shores into early next week. Surf along east facing shores
will gradually become rough and choppy today through the weekend as
trades return.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
258
FXHW60 PHFO 021313
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
313 AM HST Thu May 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will strengthen today, then become breezy Friday
through the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor typical
windward slopes, with an increase in showers expected this
weekend through the first half of next week as a disturbance
aloft passes overhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Stable easterly trade wind flow remains over the islands early
this morning with a weak trough northwest of Kauai and a 1030 mb
surface high to the far northeast. Satellite imagery continues to
show partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region, with radar
showing isolated showers across mainly windward slopes. Expect
trades to strengthen today as the trough weakens further and high
pressure builds over the region, with clouds and showers favoring
windward and mauka areas. With no areas of organized moisture
upstream of the islands rain totals will remain limited today.
Breezy to locally windy trades look to develop over the state on
Friday, then continue through the weekend as high pressure settles
to the northeast. This will drive an uptick in clouds and showers
over windward and mauka areas, with a few showers drifting into
leeward areas due to the stronger winds. Expect the strongest
winds over the windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island.
Guidance continues to show an upper level low stalling to the west
of Kauai over the weekend, then slowly moving across the state
early next week. As the low moves across the state expect a boost
in to our trade wind showers, with a few brief downpours possible
through the first half of next week. Details are still uncertain,
but windward and mauka areas could become quite showery through
early next week, especially across the western end of the state
where the best instability exists. Guidance also continue to hint
at an outside chance for some isolated thunderstorms during this
time period.
Expect a return to a more typical moderate to breezy trade wind
pattern by Wednesday as the upper low moves away from the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate E winds will gradually strengthen today. SHRA and isol
MVFR conds expected windward and mauka locations. VFR conditions
will prevail leeward, except for isolated areas of MVFR conds over
leeward Big Island in the afternoon and evening.
No AIRMETs are posted, but increased low-level turb to the lee of
the terrain is expected by late this morning, likely prompting
the issuance of AIRMET Tango.
AMD NOT SKED in for Midway due to missing wind speed and direction.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will gradually return
today as a high pressure far northeast of the state shifts south
and a weak trough northwest of the state moves farther west.
Trades will strengthen to fresh to locally strong Friday and
persist into early next week as another high builds north of the
state and remains nearly stationary. The Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) for typical windy waters around Maui and the Big Island has
been extended through Monday. Maalaea Bay has also been added to
the SCA as well as the wind direction becomes for favorable for
this area and winds strengthen. Additional waters will likely be
added Friday as trade winds continue to strengthen and expand in
coverage.
Tiny surf will persist along north and west facing shores through
Friday. A small, long period northwest swell is expected to fill
in Friday night and peak Saturday, bringing small surf along
north and west facing shores. Another small, long period
northwest swell will fill in late Sunday, maintaining small surf
along north and west facing shores into early next week. Small
background south swells will continue into Saturday, providing
tiny surf for south facing shores. A small, long period south
swell may arrive Sunday providing a boost in surf along south
facing shores into early next week. Surf along east facing shores
will gradually become rough and choppy today through the weekend as
trades return.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Almanza
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office