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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

072
FXHW60 PHFO 241945
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
945 AM HST Sat Sep 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Light southeast flow and sea breezes will increase afternoon and
evening showers across island interiors this weekend. A ridge of
high pressure reestablishing north of the islands next week, will
promote the gradual transition from light trades early, toward a
moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern through the
remainder of the week and next weekend. The strengthening trade
wind pattern will redirect showers toward windward areas next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A persistent pattern remains anchored over the region today, with
an area of high pressure well northeast of the state while a
weakening surface low lingers northwest near Midway. This pattern
will maintain weak pressure gradient southeast flow across the
islands through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week.
This will allow for the continued development of afternoon and
early evening sea breeze showers across leeward areas and island
interiors through Monday. Expect plume development once again
during the afternoons this weekend, especially the Molokai and
Lanai plumes, as winds remain generally light southeast. The
airmass across the state is forecast to remain basically
unchanged through the weekend (precipitable water values ranging
between 1.40 to 1.60inch), though slightly drier as compared to
Friday. Therefore expect the areal coverage of showers will
expand across the islands this afternoon and Sunday in a similar
pattern as Friday. The forecast depth of moisture this weekend is
slightly lower compared to Friday, which will tend to limit
rainfall rates somewhat this weekend. However, the slow movement
of any showers that develop, combined with the latest CIMSS based
total precipitable water estimates of 1.55 inches streaming in
from the east, keeps a few heavier showers a possibility through
Sunday.

Next week begins the transition toward strengthening trades.
A weakening surface boundary well north of the state will drop
southward toward the islands, maintaining a lighter southeast
background flow while increasing moisture and enhancing rainfall
chances over the westerns islands into Wednesday. The ridge north
of the state begins to reestablish itself by midweek, with
easterly trades increasing to moderate before further
strengthening to locally breezy by the weekend. The trade wind
pattern developing next week will diminish the chance for
afternoon leeward sea breeze showers, and once again redirect
showers to mainly windward areas in a typical trade wind weather
pattern. Expect the areal coverage of windward showers to
diminish later in the week, as drier air start streaming into the
region from the east early in the week, with precipitable water
values forecast to drop to around 1.3inches or less by the second
half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light east southeast winds will prevail this
morning. Sea breezes will set in during the late morning and
bring increasing clouds and a few showers over island interiors
this afternoon and early evening. Brief mountain obscurations may
occur with these showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A low far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands will continue to
weaken the ridge just north of the state. Expect light to
moderate east to southeast winds through Sunday. Models show a
front will stall north of the region by Tuesday, keeping light to
moderate winds in the forecast through the first half of next
week. Wind speeds may approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds by
the end of next week.

South swell will remain elevated through Sunday, then decrease
Sunday night, leaving only background south swell through the
first half of next week. A small north-northwest swell will keep
north shore surf elevated today before fading on Monday. Another
small north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Tuesday and
Wednesday. West facing shores will see a small increase in surf
from the south swell and, to a lesser extent, the north-northwest
swell. Light trade winds will keep small surf in the forecast
along east facing shores through at least next Wednesday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SWR
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Powell

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