NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
809
FXHW60 PHFO 181305
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
305 AM HST Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and pleasant trade wind conditions will prevail through
next week. Breezy northeast trade winds will briefly weaken over
the weekend, then shift out of the east and return to breezy levels
early next week. Clouds and brief showers will favor windward and
mauka locations overnight through the mornings as areas of moisture
move through periodically.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest model guidance has initialized well with the current
pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions prevailing through next
week as high pressure builds north of the state. The low-level
flow has shifted out of the northeast and will reach the breezy
category through the day today. Despite the dry conditions in
place, a weak upper trough moving through combined with a remnant
low-level moisture boundary settling south into the smaller
islands this morning supports scattered light showers, mostly
over windward areas of Oahu and Kauai. This band of moisture will
linger into tonight, then diminish.
The breezy trades will hold Friday, but ease into the light to
moderate range over the weekend as a weakness forms in the ridge
due to a system passing far to the north. The southern extent of
a mid- to upper-level trough associated with this system will
pass nearby to the north through this time, which could support a
slight increase in windward shower coverage through the
overnight/morning periods. Rising upper heights along with a
strengthening surface ridge to the north will support the dry
conditions prevailing early next week with breezy easterly trades
returning.
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface high pressure northwest of the state will continue to
drift eastward during the forecast period and maintain light to
moderate northeasterly trades across the state. Thus, scattered
shower activity will mainly affect windward locations. Expect
brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility to be associated
with this activity today, especially for Kauai and Oahu. VFR
conditions elsewhere.
AIRMET SIERRA has been issued above 2000 feet for north through
east sections of Kauai for tempo mountain obscuration from low
clouds and showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate northeast trades will persist through the forecast
period possibly strengthening slightly during the weekend.
Small surf along south facing shores will hold as overlapping
south swells maintain elevated surf through the end of the week.
The current northwest swell will become increasingly north as it
gradually subsides through today. A small north swell will bring
a modest bump to exposed shorelines during the latter half of the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain small.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
809
FXHW60 PHFO 181305
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
305 AM HST Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and pleasant trade wind conditions will prevail through
next week. Breezy northeast trade winds will briefly weaken over
the weekend, then shift out of the east and return to breezy levels
early next week. Clouds and brief showers will favor windward and
mauka locations overnight through the mornings as areas of moisture
move through periodically.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest model guidance has initialized well with the current
pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions prevailing through next
week as high pressure builds north of the state. The low-level
flow has shifted out of the northeast and will reach the breezy
category through the day today. Despite the dry conditions in
place, a weak upper trough moving through combined with a remnant
low-level moisture boundary settling south into the smaller
islands this morning supports scattered light showers, mostly
over windward areas of Oahu and Kauai. This band of moisture will
linger into tonight, then diminish.
The breezy trades will hold Friday, but ease into the light to
moderate range over the weekend as a weakness forms in the ridge
due to a system passing far to the north. The southern extent of
a mid- to upper-level trough associated with this system will
pass nearby to the north through this time, which could support a
slight increase in windward shower coverage through the
overnight/morning periods. Rising upper heights along with a
strengthening surface ridge to the north will support the dry
conditions prevailing early next week with breezy easterly trades
returning.
&&
.AVIATION...
Surface high pressure northwest of the state will continue to
drift eastward during the forecast period and maintain light to
moderate northeasterly trades across the state. Thus, scattered
shower activity will mainly affect windward locations. Expect
brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility to be associated
with this activity today, especially for Kauai and Oahu. VFR
conditions elsewhere.
AIRMET SIERRA has been issued above 2000 feet for north through
east sections of Kauai for tempo mountain obscuration from low
clouds and showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate northeast trades will persist through the forecast
period possibly strengthening slightly during the weekend.
Small surf along south facing shores will hold as overlapping
south swells maintain elevated surf through the end of the week.
The current northwest swell will become increasingly north as it
gradually subsides through today. A small north swell will bring
a modest bump to exposed shorelines during the latter half of the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain small.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office