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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

175
FXHW60 PHFO 060618
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
818 PM HST Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to breezy
trades in place through early next week, with the trades peaking
over the weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas
through the period, with a stray shower occasionally spilling
leeward. A disturbance moving through aloft is expected to
increase shower coverage and intensity tonight through early
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high centered around 1050
miles north of Honolulu, is driving moderate to locally breezy
trade winds across the island chain this evening. Infrared
satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across the
state, with cloud coverage the greatest in windward areas. Radar
imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward
slopes and coasts, with a few showers spilling leeward from time
to time as well. Main short term focus revolves around rain
chances during the next few days.

High pressure will remain nearly stationary to the north of the
islands for the next couple days, keeping moderate to breezy
trade winds in place. The high will strengthen to around 1035 mb
this weekend, and with inversion heights lowering to around 6 kft,
the trade wind speeds should increase to breezy levels statewide,
and a Wind Advisory may be required for some of the typically
windier locations during this time. The high will weaken and shift
slowly westward well to the north of the islands early next week,
and this should lead to a slight easing of the trades, although
moderate to locally breezy conditions will likely continue through
the middle of next week.

As for weather details, an increase in deep layer moisture
associated with a mid-level disturbance is spreading over the
islands this evening, and is expected to shift slowly from east to
west across the state through Friday. This area of enhanced
moisture should bring an increase in shower coverage and intensity
as it moves through, making for rather wet conditions at times in
windward areas, and sending showers more regularly into leeward
areas as well. Drier more typical trade wind weather will resume
Friday night and continue through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep
moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast for the next
several days. A disturbance moving into the state from the east
will bring periods of MVFR conditions with low cloud ceilings and
showers along north and east sections of all islands. AIRMET
Sierra was just issued for tempo mountain obscuration above 2000
feet.

AIRMET SIERRA in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2000
feet for north and east sections of all islands. These low
ceilings will continue through at least Thursday morning.

AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for low level moderate turbulence
below 8000 feet for areas over and immediately south through west
of mountains on all islands. AIRMET Tango will likely continue
through the rest of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure far north-northeast of the area will remain
nearly stationary, sustaining a moderate to locally breezy trade
wind pattern over the islands into the weekend. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) continues for the typically windier areas near Maui
County and the Big Island through Saturday afternoon. However,
the SCA may need to be extended, and expanded in area, over the
weekend as winds are likely to increase.

A small, and fairly short-period, southeast swell will persist
into next week, but the Big Island will block some of this swell
from reaching the rest of the islands. Long-period swells from
deep in the southern hemisphere will remain small, but help to
keep surf along the south shores somewhat elevated. Small surf
along east facing shores will build through the weekend as trade
winds strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Kinel

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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