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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

846
FXHW60 PHFO 090200
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 PM HST Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The breezy trade wind pattern will continue through early next
week. A slight uptick of showers are expected to move in late
tonight and continue through Thursday night as an area of higher
moisture moves through the state. Moderate showers will favor
windward and mountain areas with isolated showers over leeward
areas. Our typical trade wind weather will return on Friday and
continue through early next week, with mostly dry weather over
leeward areas and scattered showers over windward and mountain
areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure north of the state will maintain breezy trade winds
through early next week. Some minor fluctuations are expected
with slightly stronger trades possible Friday through the weekend
and slightly weaker trades on Monday. But overall, breezy trade
winds will persist into next week.

Afternoon soundings from Lihue and Hilo are showing inversions
around 6000 feet with near normal precipitable water values
at about 1.2 inches. Latest CIMSS satellite estimated precipitable
water (PW) values are showing an area of higher moisture with
PW up to 1.70 inches about 300 miles east of the Big Island this
afternoon. Starting late tonight, this surge of moisture will move
across the state from east to west through Thursday night. Off and
on moderate showers will be likely for windward and mauka areas
during this time with some leeward showers expected due to the
breezy trades. Starting Friday and continuing into early next
week, we should return to our typical summer time trade wind
weather, where leeward areas will remain mostly dry with scattered
light to moderate showers over windward and mauka areas. Showers
will be most common during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure well north of Hawaii will continue to provide the
islands with breezy northeasterly tradewinds through tonight. The
stronger winds may create some low level turbulence. Winds should
be a little weaker on Thursday.

The best chance for rain and low level clouds continues to be
over windward mauka areas. The best chance for that to happen will
be on the Big Island and Maui.

TEMPO MOD TURB below 9Kft for Big Island and Maui S thru W of
mountains until 04Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through the weekend and
into early next week, as strong high pressure holds in place far
north and northeast of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
is in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the
Big Island through Sunday. This SCA will likely need to be extended
into early next week.

No significant swells are due through much of the week. A mix of
mainly background southerly swells will dominate, with a south-
southwest swell potentially boosting south shore surf to around
the summer average Thursday and Friday. Trade wind swell will
gradually build to around the summer average by Thursday or Friday
as well, then hold into early next week. Surf along north facing
shores will remain small.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Chevalier
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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