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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

651
FXHW60 PHFO 020617
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
817 PM HST Tue Dec 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge to the north will maintain gentle winds through tomorrow.
This will bring a clear night tonight and a sunny morning
tomorrow. Clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon, but only isolated
light showers are expected. A high northeast of the area will
produce moderate easterly trade winds and windward showers over
Maui and the Big Island Wednesday night and Thursday. A new high
northwest of the area will bring breezy northeast trade winds and
more windward showers on Friday. A ridge moving over the area
Saturday will bring lighter winds through early next week.
Stronger trade winds may return for the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge just north of the area will produce gentle
easterly trade winds and dry weather through tomorrow. Land
breezes will bring clear skies to most areas through tomorrow
morning. Afternoon sea breezes will produce some interior clouds
and isolated light showers tomorrow afternoon and evening.

A high building northeast of the area Wednesday and Thursday will
produce moderate trade near Maui and the Big Island, and an
increase in windward showers on those islands. A new high will
build northwest of the islands Thursday night. Winds will shift
out of the northeast and strengthen and windward showers will
increase on Friday.

The high will move east rapidly and a ridge will shift south
closer to the islands over the weekend bringing dry weather over
the weekend. Winds will veer from the southeast and weaken, with
light and variable winds over the smaller islands. Clear nights
and afternoon clouds will prevail. Trade winds are expected to
return during the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
The developing land breeze will scour remaining clouds from Kauai
in short order yielding another night of mostly clear skies
areawide. Sea breezes will develop midday Wednesday but will
struggle to produce much in the way of inland clouds/showers as
mid-level ridging and dry air hold firm.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
As the first large northwest swell of the winter season arrives in
the islands, surf is increasing rapidly along north and west
facing shores, in line with the current forecast. Warning level
surf is expected along affected north and west facing shores of
the smaller islands through Thursday, and advisory level surf
along the west facing shores of the Big Island. The swell will
peak tonight into Wednesday with surf likely reaching 40+ ft along
exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands.
Impacts include significant beach erosion and water sweeping
across beach areas that typically remain dry. Some low-lying
coastal roadways and properties will be susceptible to overwash
with the highest risk occurring early Wednesday morning as the
peak swell and high tide coincide.

This large northwest swell will drive seas well above the 10 ft
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold for waters exposed to
northwest swells. Seas are expected to remain elevated into
Thursday.

Weak trade winds will allow land and sea breeze regime statewide
through midweek as a series of fronts pass north of the islands.
Surf along east facing shores will drop through Thursday as trade
winds diminish. Fresh trades are forecasted for Friday and
Saturday as a ridge noses eastward behind one of the fronts.

Another significant swell event appears possible Sunday and early
next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM Thursday for North and West facing
shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu and Molokai and North facing shores
of Maui.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday for Kona.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM Thursday for all Hawaiian Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donaldson
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...M Ballard

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office



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