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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 171334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 AM HST Thu Oct 17 2019

Breezy trade winds and passing windward showers are expected
through the weekend and into next week. Humidity and rainfall may
increase a notch over the weekend as tropical moisture moves over
the island chain.


An old frontal boundary and an upper level trough that had brought
some bouts of heavy showers are moving west away from the state
this morning, alleviating the threat of heavy rain. High pressure
far north of the state will maintain trade winds throughout the
week and shower coverage will focus over windward and mountain
areas with a few showers reaching leeward areas.

On Saturday, a weakening front over the Northwest Hawaiian Islands
may push the high pressure generating our trades far enough east
to shift the trade winds from the east-southeast. This slight
shift in wind direction may be enough to allow some tropical
moisture to flow over the eastern half of the state Saturday
afternoon and Sunday. This would increase humidity and trade wind
showers mainly for the Big Island and Maui County. Otherwise,
breezy trade wind weather is expected through early next week as
the high far to the northeast re-establishes itself as our
dominant weather factor.


Upper level low moving west of the state early this morning will
continue to provide enhanced moisture and marginal instability
to Kauai westward. MVFR conditions could develop due to any
passing +SHRA. For the remaining islands, moderate easterly trades
will push much of the SHRA activity against the windward coasts
and slopes, through isolated -SHRA may periodically push over on
onto leeward sides.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.


A strong high north of the area will maintain locally strong
easterly trade winds over the coastal waters through Friday, and
possibly longer. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect
for Maalaea Bay, the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters
south of the Big Island. The SCA may need to be expanded further
and extended into the weekend. Winds are forecast to weaken
starting Saturday as the high moves farther east and a front
approaches from the northwest.

Surf is expected to remain below advisory levels along all shores
through early next week. A series of northwest, north, and south
swells will produce small surf through early next week. Surf along
east facing shores will rise a bit over the next few days as the
trades strengthen.


Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.




Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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It was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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