NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
706
FXHW60 PHFO 160148
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
348 PM HST Mon Apr 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate west-northwest winds with drier air will continue to
fill in behind a dissipating front. Building high pressure north
of the state will bring a return to a more typical trade wind
pattern for Wednesday, with limited windward and mauka-focused
showers continuing into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest analysis places a weakening front near the Big Island
this afternoon, moving slowly southeastward. Visible satellite and
radar imagery shows the shower band associated with this feature
has become significantly more diffuse through the day, with only
scattered showers now over the eastern end of the state, despite
the presence of an upper trough just north of the islands. Strong
westerly flow aloft continues to cause warning-level winds on the
Big Island Summits and advisory-level winds for Haleakala summit.
These conditions are expected to continue through tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise, light to moderate west-northwest winds
and much drier conditions are filling in from west to east in the
wake of the front, with little in the way of showers and scattered
clouds over the western half of the state. On Tuesday, the drier
air will spread to the rest of the state as the dissipating front
moves east of the area. Winds will shift out of the north through
Tuesday, becoming northeast trades by Wednesday as high pressure
builds to the north of the state. A return to a more typical trade
wind pattern is anticipated for Wednesday through the second half
of the week, with moderate wind speeds and clouds/showers favoring
windward areas. Global models show a dry airmass sticking around
through early next week, so have trended a bit lower with PoPs
through the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weakening frontal system near the Big Island is expected to
dissipate over the next 24 hours of so. Skies have cleared over
Kauai, Oahu and Molokai behind the front. Additional clearing over
the remainder of Maui County is expected as the afternoon wears
on. Some lingering clouds and showers will trail over the Big
Island.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for
Maui and Lanai, but conditions are expected to improve over
the next couple of hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mechanical turbulence N through NE
of the mountains on the Big Island.
Occasional light rime icing is expected in layered clouds above 15
kft from Maui eastward. Conditions will continue today, but some
improvement is expected from west to east as the front moves away
from the islands.
&&
.MARINE...
An increasingly diffuse front over the Big Island will continue
to move SE and gradually dissipate through Tuesday. Clouds and
showers associated with the front are diminishing in both coverage
and intensity. Light to moderate W to NW winds will follow the
front through tonight, except for moderate to fresh S to SW winds
over Big Island waters. High pressure building NW of the islands
will support a veering low-level flow starting Tuesday, with
light to moderate NW to N winds becoming NE and strengthening
somewhat after midweek.
A Small Craft Advisory for the Alenuihaha Channel and leeward Big
Island waters has been allowed to expire as S to SW winds diminish,
while increased seas in Kauai waters will require a SCA through
Tuesday.
Surf along N and W facing shores will increase through this
evening as a mixed-period NW swell builds, bringing elevated surf
to exposed shores as the swell peaks overnight. This swell will
gradually diminish as it becomes increasingly N the next couple of
days. Otherwise, small swells from the SSE and SW will support
small surf along S facing shores the next couple of days. Surf
along E facing shores will remain very small, then gradually trend
up as NE trade winds increase later in the week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Haleakala Summit.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Birchard
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
706
FXHW60 PHFO 160148
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
348 PM HST Mon Apr 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate west-northwest winds with drier air will continue to
fill in behind a dissipating front. Building high pressure north
of the state will bring a return to a more typical trade wind
pattern for Wednesday, with limited windward and mauka-focused
showers continuing into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest analysis places a weakening front near the Big Island
this afternoon, moving slowly southeastward. Visible satellite and
radar imagery shows the shower band associated with this feature
has become significantly more diffuse through the day, with only
scattered showers now over the eastern end of the state, despite
the presence of an upper trough just north of the islands. Strong
westerly flow aloft continues to cause warning-level winds on the
Big Island Summits and advisory-level winds for Haleakala summit.
These conditions are expected to continue through tonight.
Elsewhere and otherwise, light to moderate west-northwest winds
and much drier conditions are filling in from west to east in the
wake of the front, with little in the way of showers and scattered
clouds over the western half of the state. On Tuesday, the drier
air will spread to the rest of the state as the dissipating front
moves east of the area. Winds will shift out of the north through
Tuesday, becoming northeast trades by Wednesday as high pressure
builds to the north of the state. A return to a more typical trade
wind pattern is anticipated for Wednesday through the second half
of the week, with moderate wind speeds and clouds/showers favoring
windward areas. Global models show a dry airmass sticking around
through early next week, so have trended a bit lower with PoPs
through the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weakening frontal system near the Big Island is expected to
dissipate over the next 24 hours of so. Skies have cleared over
Kauai, Oahu and Molokai behind the front. Additional clearing over
the remainder of Maui County is expected as the afternoon wears
on. Some lingering clouds and showers will trail over the Big
Island.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for
Maui and Lanai, but conditions are expected to improve over
the next couple of hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mechanical turbulence N through NE
of the mountains on the Big Island.
Occasional light rime icing is expected in layered clouds above 15
kft from Maui eastward. Conditions will continue today, but some
improvement is expected from west to east as the front moves away
from the islands.
&&
.MARINE...
An increasingly diffuse front over the Big Island will continue
to move SE and gradually dissipate through Tuesday. Clouds and
showers associated with the front are diminishing in both coverage
and intensity. Light to moderate W to NW winds will follow the
front through tonight, except for moderate to fresh S to SW winds
over Big Island waters. High pressure building NW of the islands
will support a veering low-level flow starting Tuesday, with
light to moderate NW to N winds becoming NE and strengthening
somewhat after midweek.
A Small Craft Advisory for the Alenuihaha Channel and leeward Big
Island waters has been allowed to expire as S to SW winds diminish,
while increased seas in Kauai waters will require a SCA through
Tuesday.
Surf along N and W facing shores will increase through this
evening as a mixed-period NW swell builds, bringing elevated surf
to exposed shores as the swell peaks overnight. This swell will
gradually diminish as it becomes increasingly N the next couple of
days. Otherwise, small swells from the SSE and SW will support
small surf along S facing shores the next couple of days. Surf
along E facing shores will remain very small, then gradually trend
up as NE trade winds increase later in the week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Haleakala Summit.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Birchard
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office