348 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 112027
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GREG CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED
 CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY
 TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
 ARE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
 BEEN ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS.
  
 IT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA WAS GOING
 TO FORCE GREG TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IT
 APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BEHIND FERNANDA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
 GREG ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
 12Z OUTPUT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH
 OF GREG. IN FACT...THESE MODELS SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN A
 DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
 SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT.  THIS ALSO MEANS THAT GREG WILL STAY
 OVER WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS
 INDICATED.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 13.8N 110.9W    40 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W    50 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W    60 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W    65 KT
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W    65 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W    65 KT
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    65 KT
  
  
 $$
 

This page was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman