077 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 122044
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005
 
 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF GREG. THE CENTER IS
 QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN SINCE CENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB
 DIFFER BY 4 TENTHS OF A DEGREE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. BASED
 ON PREVIOUS SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM... AND FURTHER
 SUPPORTED BY MICROWAVE FIXES... THE OFFICIAL POSITION TENDS TOWARD
 THE SAB POSITION. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL CENTERS ARE ALSO
 MIXED...BUT GENERALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE
 SHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 50 KT
 THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MAKE
 GREG A HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES MAKE GREG A HURRICANE BEYOND 36 HOURS... BUT
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN FUTURE
 ADVISORIES AS GREG STRUGGLES IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
 BECOME MORE WESTWARD IN TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND
 OF CONTINUITY AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL. THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER
 FROM THE 12Z RUN TAKES A HUGE SOUTH AND EAST TURNAROUND... AN
 UNREALISTIC RADICAL SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY... A LOWER CONFIDENCE IS
 PLACED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH UTILIZE THE GFS
 TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK MOVES GREG IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
 DIRECTION AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS... WHICH
 CONSISTS OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACKS.    
 
 FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/2100Z 14.5N 113.7W    40 KT
  12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.6N 114.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.6N 115.5W    60 KT
  36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W    70 KT
  48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.7N 117.7W    75 KT
  72HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W    65 KT
  
  
 $$
 
 

This page was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman