645 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 142029
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION OF GREG IS GRADUALLY BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY A MUCH
 LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  THERE IS
 STILL CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER AND A WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY
 CURVED BAND. THE CURRENT DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
 SUGGESTS THAT GREG HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
  
 THE CENTER OF GREG HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. SINCE
 THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SHALLOW AND THE DOMINANT STEERING APPEARS TO
 BE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER GYRE TO THE
 EAST....THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS SHOW LITTLE MOTION AND NO
 CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE
 THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION OVER WARM WATER...A
 REFORMATION OR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
 QUESTION. IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS
 MODELS.
  
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 14.3N 115.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  
  
 $$
 

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