794 
 WTNT21 KNHC 040231
 TCMAT1
 
 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
 0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2017
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 NONE.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
 NEVIS
 * SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN
 * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
 
 INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE BRITISH AND
 U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
 OF IRMA.  ADDITIONAL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE
 REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  51.0W AT 04/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  961 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
 64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
 50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 34 KT.......120NE  80SE  50SW 120NW.
 12 FT SEAS..390NE 150SE 150SW 390NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  51.0W AT 04/0300Z
 AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  50.4W
 
 FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N  52.6W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 120NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N  54.8W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 34 KT...130NE  90SE  60SW 130NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.8N  57.1W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 34 KT...140NE 100SE  70SW 140NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.4N  59.6W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 140NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N  65.0W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 34 KT...180NE 160SE  90SW 160NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.2N  70.2W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N  74.5W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  51.0W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

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