908 
 WTNT21 KNHC 041446
 TCMAT1
 
 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
 1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2017
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
 ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
 KITTS...AND NEVIS.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
 BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
 THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST.
 MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
 GUADELOUPE.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
 PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
 DOMINICA.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
 NEVIS
 * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN
 * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * GUADELOUPE
 * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * DOMINICA
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
 FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
 OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
 RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
 THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
 CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
 INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
 ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
 OF IRMA.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  53.3W AT 04/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
 64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
 50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 34 KT.......120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 150SW 270NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  53.3W AT 04/1500Z
 AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  52.6W
 
 FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N  54.8W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 34 KT...130NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N  57.1W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 34 KT...140NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.3N  59.6W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N  62.4W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
 50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 140NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N  68.0W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N  73.3W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N  77.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  53.3W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
 

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